"2009 is going to be a bloodbath"

Clay Shirky makes his media forecast and predictions for 2009 in a recent Guardian interview. His thoughts are likely to (or should) give media producers pause as he calls 2009 a "bloodbath" for traditional media delivery. "Radical action" and industry "clarity" driven by tight economic times and"mass democratization" of the web stand behind the assault.

As always Mr. Shirky taps into trends with aplomb and wit, such as his forecast on the future of magazines:

The great advantage magazines have is glossy pictures. It's better to read on paper than on the web but it's much better to look at pictures on paper than on the net. Brides magazine is going to be the last one standing.

I'll add to his forecast on TV, its appeal and the white-knuckled DRM-driven "content is everything" business model, and point out that web-based delivery of video media will continue to emerge as smart content producers realize the benefits of a world wide web-based distribution channel. It'll be a kind of Gods and Monsters blood bath with Hollywood the creator of its own nightmare.

I've harped on these issues before in this blog, and will likely continue, so I apologize in advance. In a blind frenzy to reduce production costs and avoid labor unions the studios have inadvertently fostered a burgeoning movie industry outside of Hollywood, to it's own detriment. The producers counted on the distribution coming back to the Pacific shores overlooking that web-based distribution models eliminate the middle-man leveling a playing field that only existed in the posh Wilshire office suites and the patio at the Ivy. There are tons of production opportunities here, as long as you play the game in the new digital world and not in the physical realm of film canisters, tape cassettes, and DVD boxes.

As my friend exclaimed the other day when he set up and tried out his new HD Tivo with Netflix On Demand, "this is the death of broadcast TV." Now if we can ever get over that DRM content sovereignty thing that makes streaming video content so patchwork these days.

Digital guru Clay Shirky's media forecast and predictions for 2009 | Media | The Guardian: